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NeuroShell Predictor

NeuroShell Predictor

SKU-290 $595.00

DOWNLOADABLE PRODUCT: Note that this product is available only by download. Upon placing an order, you will receive download instructions within 1 business day.

Quickly build powerful predictive models for nearly any business use:

Sales forecasts; cost/benefit analysis; customer credit risk analysis; inventory analysis; cash flow forecasting; workload prediction; economic indicator forecasts; service call/customer transaction forecasts; manufacturing processes results; reservations and customer arrival forecasts; agricultural production estimates; price forecasts for raw materials; labor hours forecasts; temperature and force prediction in mills and factories; real estate price prediction.


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This product is used for forecasting and estimating numeric amounts such as sales, prices, workload, level, cost, scores, speed, capacity, etc. NeuroShell Predictor is a simple step by step process that uses recognized forecasting methods to look for future trends in your existing data. It contains the most sophisticated prediction algorithms available today yet is designed to be extremely effective with minimum intervention by the user. The program reads and writes text files for easy access to and from other programs.

The prediction algorithms (one is a new neural network and the other is a statistical estimator driven by a genetic algorithm) are the crowning achievement of several years of research. Gone are the days of dozens of parameters that must be artistically set to create a good model without overfitting. Gone are the days of hiring a neural net expert or a statistician to build your predictive models.

Two of the most commonly heard complaints about previous prediction systems, aside from being too hard to use, are that they are too slow or that they do not accurately tell you how important each of the variables is to the model. We've taken care of those problems. That's why we have two training models from which to choose.

The first model called TurboProp2 dynamically grows hidden neurons and trains very fast.   TurboProp2 models are built (trained) in 10 to 30 seconds on a 200 MHz Pentium (a matter of seconds on newer computers), compared to hours for older neural networks types.   TurboProp2 reveals the relative importance of each of your inputs.

The genetic training method trains everything in an out-of-sample mode; it is essentially doing a "one-hold-out" technique, also called "jackknife" or "cross validation".  If you train using this method, you are essentially looking at the training set out-of-sample.  This method is therefore extremely effective when you do not have many patterns on which to train. The genetic training method takes a little longer to train.  It also reveals the relative importance of each of your inputs. You will know which data you don't have to collect anymore!

The NeuroShell Predictor facilitates integration with other programs, because it uses standard text files. These files are easily imported/exported from spreadsheet programs such as Excel and Lotus®, for example.

The NeuroShell Predictor learns to make predictions by learning patterns in your data file.  The Predictor allows you to select columns from your data file which will be used as inputs to the model and to select the output column which contains the values you are trying to predict.

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The NeuroShell Predictor is so easy to use that it doesn't need a manual! Instead, there is an "Instructor" that guides you through making the predictive models. At every stage of the Instructor, our extensive help file will give you all the information you need. When you have learned from the Instructor, you can turn it off and work from the toolbar or menus.  (The program does include an on-line manual that you may print yourself or just browse from your computer.)

Finally, for those who want to embed the resulting neural models into your own programs, or to distribute the results, there is an optional Run-Time Server available. Predictor models may be distributed without incurring royalties or other fees.

The NeuroShell Predictor shows you the estimated relative importance of each variable in the model.

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Specifications

Software Requirements
The NeuroShell Predictor is a 32-bit program that requires Microsoft® Windows® 95, 98, Windows 2000®, XP or Windows NT® (SP3 or higher).  It will not run with Windows 3.1.

Hardware Requirements
IBM® PC or compatible computer with a 486 or higher processor and 16 megabytes of RAM.

Limits

  • 150 input variables and one output variable.
  • 16,000 rows of data (example patterns).

NOTE: These limits are not inhibitive as they may seem for owners of large databases.  Call for a more detailed explanation.

Files
ASCII text files separated by commas, spaces, tabs, or semicolons.
If your data is in a spreadsheet, simply save it as a .CSV file.


Speed
Neural nets train very fast, usually in under a minute.

The Genetic method will train very slowly on large files. This method
may be more suitable for less than 3,000 rows of data.


Statistics and Graphics

  • Actual vs. Predicted.
  • Learning level (R squared, average error, correlation, mean squared
    error, root mean squared error, % in range).
  • Importance of  Inputs.
  • Scatter plot.

Methodology
There are two neural network paradigms. One is a proprietary algorithm called TurboProp(TM) 2, which is NOT based on the old backpropagation algorithm. Another paradigm in the software uses an advanced variant of General Regression Neural Nets (GRNN), not to be confused with regression analysis.



Features

Ability to Select Level of Generalization in Neural Training Strategy
Our neural method can actually be changed after it is trained so that it provides more or less generalization.  Pressing the Advanced Button will allow you to select the level of generalization from 0% (No Enhanced Generalization) to 100% (Over Generalization). A setting of 50% is equivalent to Enhanced Generalization. The default value, when the Enhanced Generalization button is checked, is 50%.

Maximum Number of Hidden Neurons for Neural Training Strategy
You may set the number of hidden neurons to a maximum of 150 when using the Neural Training Strategy.  This gives you some control over how the neural net fits data.   You may even specify zero hidden neurons for a linear model.

Maximum Number of Generations Without Improvement in Genetic Training Strategy
You may set the maximum number of generations without improvement that the algorithm will train on. The number of generations may be set between 10 and 1000 (integers only). This will allow you to control the length of training time.

Advanced Genetic Features
You can train your model using different goals of genetic optimization when using the Genetic Training Strategy. These goals include:

  • Maximizing R-Squared
  • Minimizing average error
  • Maximizing correlation
  • Minimizing Mean Squared Error (MSE)
  • Minimizing Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
  • Maximizing a user-definable number within tolerance

You can also have the Genetic Training Strategy minimize the number of unpredictable patterns and also to have it favor tighter fitting during optimization.

Free Technical Support

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Reviews/Testimonials

David Ellis, The Mining Company's AI guide" "Until NeuroShell Predictor/Classifier, I had not seen a general purpose neural net program usable by just about anybody. Others I have seen required a deep understanding of neural net technology; NeuroShell does not. I commend it to your attention."

ORMS Today: "AI Trilogy is an excellent package for those who are interested in getting the results of neural networks without worrying about how the neural network works or having to make adjustments to them."

Futures Magazine: "Not that many years ago, neural networks and related artificial intelligence technologies were state-of-the-art, required the education of a rocket scientist along with programming experience as well as big mainframe computers that couldn't be bought for money. Today - largely thanks to Ward Systems Group - the latest neural network technology can be understood and operated by any computer-literate person, at a cost less than a nice 'night on the town' for two. ... It has to be said: It can't get any easier than this."

Patrick K. Simpson, Former President IEEE Neural Networks Council: "You continue to have the best classifier and prediction software in the market. Please feel free to let others know I think so."

Cedric Harris, Lamr Investment Technologies: "The NeuroShell Predictor is the backbone of our ProfitShares system. We have a proven 98% accuracy rate tracking trends 3 minutes out over the last three months. It is uncanny how close the predictions are to the actual values."

Part of line of software whose customers include 3M, AAA, AT&T, Bank of America, BMW North America, Chase Manhattan Bank, Citigroup, Coca Cola, Dell Computer, Delta Airlines, Exxon/Mobil, Federal Reserve Board, General Electric, Hewlett Packard, IBM, Merril Lynch, Microsoft, MIT, NASA, Pfizer, Procter and Gamble, Prudential Securities, Shell Oil and many more.


Text supplied with permission from Ward Systems Group

Save $390 (over 20%) when you purchase NeuroShell Predictor as a part of the AI Trilogy!

DOWNLOADABLE PRODUCT: Note that this product is available only by download. Upon placing an order, you will receive download instructions within 1 business day.


SKU-290 $595.00

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